According to reports, the recent monthly survey released by the New York Federal Reserve indicates that consumer inflation expectations have returned to the levels seen at the beginning of the year. However, public sentiment regarding the labor market appears pessimistic, with many anticipating that finding new jobs will become more difficult.

The June survey revealed that the median expectation for price increases over the next year has fallen to 3%, marking a decline for the second consecutive month. Meanwhile, expectations for annual inflation rates over the next three and five years remain unchanged at 3% and 2.6%, respectively. Additionally, uncertainty regarding future price pressures has decreased for both one- and three-year periods.

Despite President Trump's announcement of significantly increased tariffs in April, these tariffs have yet to show effects in most inflation data. The consumer price index in May rose by only 0.1%, while the inflation rate remains higher than the Fed's 2% target. However, the Trump administration threatened to raise tariffs on imports from several key trading partners again this week, increasing uncertainty regarding the final levels of tariff implementation.

Regarding the labor market, public opinions are mixed. While concerns over unemployment in the next 12 months have decreased to the lowest level since December, there is also growing worry about the difficulty of finding new jobs in the event of unemployment. Nevertheless, as fears of layoffs lessen, consumers appear slightly more optimistic about their personal financial situations.

In terms of credit conditions, the report shows a reduction in the number of households reporting difficulty obtaining loans, with fewer families expecting financial challenges in the upcoming year.

Despite the overall stabilization of inflation expectations, consumers still expect significant price increases in specific categories, including a 4.2% rise in gasoline and a 9.3% rise in medical costs (the highest since June 2023). Additionally, both college tuition and rent are projected to rise by 9.1%.